Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6260b6a190fdf12407ee9fc29a46bc831ee2212f128ad552bf4794e0f9d07610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 38c | 303.04$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.76 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 16c | 301.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 75c | 267.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 241$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 207.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 38c | 181.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 60c | 178.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 174.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 36c | 173.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 169.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 150.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 46c | 144.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 138.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 127.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 36c | 97.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 79.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 39c | 78.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 75.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 74.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 72.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 21c | 71.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 68.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 58c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 22c | 66.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 61.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 67c | 59.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 69c | 56.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 66c | 53.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 75c | 53.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…0dacbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 49.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 23c | 46.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 62c | 40.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 33c | 40.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 39.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 30c | 34.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…522dbacked Yes | 51c | 33.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 32.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 30.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 27.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 40c | 26.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 55c | 26.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 25.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 61c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 21.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 73c | 19.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 70c | 15.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.