TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,566
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,734

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,566 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes38c303.04$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7641331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes16c301.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5825344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed Yes75c267.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c241$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.455,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c207.6$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes38c181.92$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3991444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No60c178.7$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6411169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes25c174.16$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.818,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes36c173.17$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9263538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No55c169.3$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.111,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c150.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.587,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes46c144.44$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.938636%31 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes30c138.45$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c127.9$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c97.83$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.339,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes36c97.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3534050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes28c79.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes39c78.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3141051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c75.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes34c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.382,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes36c74.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.751,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c72.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed Yes21c71.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2816038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c70$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.335,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No77c68.89$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.922,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No58c68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.362,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0a…71dabacked Yes22c66.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7111343.4%49 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No61c65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No71c61.91$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9539968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No67c59.72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No69c56.16$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6254547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No66c53.49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1898160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked No75c53.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2518862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97d9…0dacbacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No71c49.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4945253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes23c46.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5161629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No57c43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.551,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No62c40.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.56926.1%18 W · 51 L-11.5wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-45.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes33c40.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.248919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No65c39.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.922,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No64c39.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes30c34.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.443848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…522dbacked Yes51c33.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3319753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No74c32.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.392,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No64c30.12$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.772,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9942151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No55c27.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.264,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.546,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes40c26.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.762,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No55c26.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No75c25.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.386,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No72c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.571464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No61c22.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.710857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No69c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.821,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c21.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.124,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No73c19.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1826458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d35…3d76backed No71c15.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.495427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes70c15.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6525038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.