Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7d2f526d3bd826d3540e48184e3d250d8586d9b9307b03c6cc0b0361335666d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 78c | 536.29$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.85 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 22c | 320.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 286.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 241.74$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.34 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 58c | 227.03$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 205.72$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 199$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 194.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 188.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…7320backed No | 51c | 167.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 43c | 151.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 143.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 124.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 100.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 99.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 41c | 98.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…0045backed Yes | 67c | 86.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 16c | 86.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 47c | 84.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 82.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 45c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 32c | 67.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 34c | 67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 48c | 66.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 35c | 63.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 61.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 56c | 58.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 63c | 54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 50.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…0dacbacked No | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 35c | 41.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…e184backed Yes | 44c | 40.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…0edebacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 71c | 38.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 68c | 36.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 52c | 33.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 32.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 50c | 32.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…668abacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…a226backed No | 46c | 28.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 40c | 26.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 49c | 24.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 66c | 24.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 50c | 24.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed Yes | 73c | 23.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 22.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 22.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 51c | 21.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 60c | 21.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…dbddbacked No | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Yes | 69c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.