Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62687c9d515e5d883a1129b248a17f46d5d845059ba54fe2816f5a53fad6fc75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 0c | 8,552$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 46c | 281.32$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.37 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 209.43$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 56c | 152.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 41c | 135.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 125.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 18c | 124.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 47c | 112.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 65c | 106.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 62c | 84.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 272 | 44.5%121 W · 151 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 78.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 70.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 37c | 66.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 46c | 61.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 60.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 47c | 60.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 47.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 59c | 46.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 51c | 35.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 51c | 34.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 44c | 34.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 55c | 32.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 31.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 33c | 31.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 30.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 49c | 29.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 28.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 26.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 26.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed No | 39c | 25.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 25.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 24.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 23.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 52c | 23.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…5d9ebacked No | 53c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.39per pick | 62cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 67c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc04…6f04backed Yes | 68c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.