Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc328bd3debaa802f32c19fdf215943435e4a425579df198b65452a286d38d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 76c | 1,342$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.11 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 997.59$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.54 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 562.27$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.85 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 56c | 492.59$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.55 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 422.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 73c | 413$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 61c | 389.18$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.89 | 83 | 80.7%67 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 323.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 254.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 170$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 67c | 150.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 34c | 148$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed No | 69c | 136.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 42c | 118.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 35c | 117.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 464 | 56.5%262 W · 202 L | +54.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 113.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 148 | 28.4%42 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 105$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 25c | 93.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 272 | 44.5%121 W · 151 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 30c | 92.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 23c | 88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…aff0backed Yes | 36c | 84.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 76c | 82.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 70c | 74.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 24c | 70.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 64c | 62.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 55.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 35c | 52.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 222 | 38.7%86 W · 136 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 33c | 49.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 48.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 56c | 47.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…4d53backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 28c | 39.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 78c | 33.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 725 | 42.2%306 W · 419 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…0236backed No | 72c | 33.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 30.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 63c | 26.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…773cbacked No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 25.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed No | 76c | 22.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 22.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 21.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 80c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 73c | 19.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 72c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.