South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62788079b510d9dec43dc8cc54e37a697728e672d70c8da5c5a9653f475da2d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 2c | 95,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 18c | 8,074$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.59 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…b1bebacked Over | 2c | 5,400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 80c | 1,075$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.81 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Over | 5c | 1,060$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Over | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Under | 78c | 455$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 22c | 455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 5c | 416.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…9c73backed Over | 4c | 295.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 22c | 269.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 26c | 235.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 74c | 230$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 9c | 223.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 20c | 207.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 131.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 29c | 101.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa681…8b89backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…4718backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Under | 73c | 69.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Under | 73c | 67.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 67.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 27c | 58.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 71c | 51.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…771cbacked Under | 72c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 39.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 67c | 33.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 75c | 26.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…7be0backed Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 70c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79e1…843fbacked Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: Botafogo FR O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: Botafogo FR O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: Santos FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: Santos FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: Santos FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.