Premier League · resolved market
Will Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x629dbbf51d1c3a5f689ac72fb1a77ab5fd118f488ef4f26d6a2d528d05314565
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,806 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 20c | 10,316$2,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.72 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 10c | 6,017$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 105 | 79%83 W · 22 L | +22.7wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 8c | 3,608$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,907$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.79 | 93 | 73.1%68 W · 25 L | +17.6wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,730$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 77c | 2,543$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.87 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,394$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.02 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 23c | 2,153$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Yes | 22c | 2,051$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.25 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x769b…2ea9backed Yes | 15c | 1,840$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.29 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…832abacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 16c | 1,146$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 6c | 839.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7b…1476backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 4c | 705.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 19c | 533.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 451 | 42.6%192 W · 259 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…0ef8backed Yes | 8c | 449.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 15c | 405$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 19c | 344.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 9c | 343.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 9c | 291.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 10c | 271.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Yes | 13c | 264.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 271 | 41.7%113 W · 158 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 15c | 252.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 12c | 220.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 9c | 202.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd5…a3ccbacked Yes | 11c | 145.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 18c | 106.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…a59abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 25%63 W · 189 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a7…c755backed Yes | 12c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46b…b195backed Yes | 25c | 77.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 79c | 63.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 209 | 56%117 W · 92 L | +15.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…28b8backed Yes | 24c | 43.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked No | 75c | 33.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 212 | 50%106 W · 106 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
- Will Mansfield Town FC win on 2026-03-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.