Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62a505ba9da55a2c3e89125e9a56ec3e1afafffe2d3d234ddca5d5aa44f3edbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 20c | 800.39$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 331.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 295.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 25c | 276.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 271.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 232.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 210.82$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 20c | 207.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 16c | 185.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 18c | 131.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 20c | 125.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 29c | 121.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 20c | 120.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…1891backed Yes | 21c | 116.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 78c | 113.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 24c | 105.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…a97abacked Yes | 25c | 100.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 90.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 20c | 81.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 19c | 80.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 17c | 78.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 76.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 73.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 72.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 23c | 66.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 19c | 61.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…818ebacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 19c | 55.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 23c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 24c | 51.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 71c | 43.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 80c | 27.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 76c | 21.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 80c | 18.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.