Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedfa8a22247d4f66c072b32e8da918eda31f5cc3aaf9cbcec0f735ac3dd79a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 395.5$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 52c | 375.7$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.91 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 11c | 359.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 296.61$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 253$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 45c | 223.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 215.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 50c | 204.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 30c | 202.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 189.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 184.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 70c | 142.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 53c | 142.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 128.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 75c | 119.28$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 111$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 48c | 101.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 98.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 98.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 51c | 95.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 64c | 94.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 91.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 77c | 89.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 48c | 86.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed No | 35c | 84.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 41c | 84.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 47c | 82.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 43c | 80.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 63c | 79.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 64c | 78.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked No | 14c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 64.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 64c | 62.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 54c | 61.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 59.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 55c | 54.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed No | 30c | 54.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 64c | 52.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 51.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 63c | 48.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 57c | 46.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed Yes | 47c | 45.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…6580backed Yes | 44c | 45.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…2955backed Yes | 45c | 44.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 56c | 44.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…65bbbacked No | 50c | 44.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…a97abacked Yes | 41c | 41.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 61c | 40.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 65c | 40.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 44c | 35.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 34c | 34.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 54c | 33.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 44c | 32.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 37c | 32.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 57c | 30.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…06fbbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 53c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 29.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 38c | 29.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 66c | 28.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 54c | 26.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 44c | 24.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 56c | 23.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 45c | 22.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…1751backed Yes | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 21.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…ac76backed No | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 59c | 20.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 65c | 18.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 60c | 18.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.