TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,095

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,508 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c395.5$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.348,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes52c375.7$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.9140237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No11c359.72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5159121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes79c296.61$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.575,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No36c253$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.725,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes45c223.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1746240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c215.71$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b6…0400backed Yes50c204.26$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.763641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No30c202.13$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.923,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes46c189.15$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.4465043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No29c184.18$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.896,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes70c142.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1249941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes53c142.01$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.5442544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c128.42$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.355,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0a92backed Yes75c119.28$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.281662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes39c111$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.331,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes48c101.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3445238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4141767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No55c98.69$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.141,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes43c98.58$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.471,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No51c95.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.481,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes64c94.46$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.471,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c91.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes77c89.78$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No48c86.54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.52,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe368…3b47backed No35c84.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No41c84.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6865353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No47c82.61$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.731,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No43c80.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6725049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.973,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.023,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes63c79.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3417241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked Yes64c78.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.118134.6%28 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No45c75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.54,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked No14c73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5718814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No15c68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No48c64.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.24,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes64c62.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3817553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No54c61.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9265965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No34c59.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.065,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No22c54.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d9…ee63backed Yes55c54.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.533740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…05a0backed No30c54.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.481816.1%11 W · 170 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01d0…7b12backed Yes64c52.33$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.593135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes41c51.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.432738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9777…3761backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No31c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.431,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes45c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes45c49.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.753,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes63c48.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9952446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No57c46.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3471464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe466…7db5backed Yes47c45.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.852181%17 W · 4 L+5.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+54.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0ab0…6580backed Yes44c45.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57f0…2955backed Yes45c44.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x237b…9f36backed No56c44.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.873262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3edb…65bbbacked No50c44.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb8d…0511backed Yes48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.673652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee2b…a97abacked Yes41c41.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.461384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.33per pick52cpaid+55.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes61c40.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.692,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes65c40.52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.981,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1660739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.391346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No54c37.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes44c35.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8130652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes58c34.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.583633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No34c34.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.551,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No54c33.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1746667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b5…db37backed Yes44c32.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0213751.8%71 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No37c32.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97bd…f2adbacked No57c30.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.614568.9%31 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…06fbbacked No59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.75763.2%36 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2815843%68 W · 90 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.153353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6298565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed No47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.212458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1822454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes53c29.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0917144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c29.34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.387,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…a4d5backed No38c29.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.25666.1%37 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes66c28.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.745543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes54c26.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0961249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.951,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2579255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes44c24.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9447538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No56c23.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.081,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes45c22.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.627130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3de…1751backed Yes67c21.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.12045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No57c21.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95aa…ac76backed No61c21.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes59c20.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1640525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes65c18.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5819848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89cf…76b3backed No60c18.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.924158.5%24 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.