Ligue 1 · resolved market
Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62bcefca704c6995caac31e9d45c7c4b93469210da6334a66278017af4087396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 3,056$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.91 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 2,144$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.12 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 46c | 1,569$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.85 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 35c | 1,100$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 58c | 1,007$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.28 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 60c | 874.9$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.9 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 40c | 621.67$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 42c | 557.48$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.7 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 40c | 405.04$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.98 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 339.49$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 226.27$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.31 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Under | 42c | 160.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…c2e6backed Over | 60c | 135$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 59c | 123.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 57c | 104.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 39c | 92.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 61c | 82.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 61c | 80.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 29c | 76.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 42c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 43c | 50.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 60c | 39.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 79c | 33.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…6075backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…d7ddbacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…6580backed Over | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5this page
- Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Under won
- Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5Under won
- Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-2.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)Le Havre AC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.