TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Humbert (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Humbertof Medvedev, Humbert
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,965

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,114 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c76…c926backed Medvedev39c390.52$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.934,08239.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L+93.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2930…4cf8backed Humbert60c358.81$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.6512631%39 W · 87 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Medvedev28c232.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.652,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e6…0244backed Medvedev32c190.53$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa373…b6dcbacked Humbert63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7354348.1%261 W · 282 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dae…a50bbacked Medvedev30c132.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6715752.2%82 W · 75 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Medvedev39c122$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.583342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Humbert72c103.62$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.157,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked Medvedev17c84.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.331855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…eda7backed Humbert61c78.02$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4341846.2%193 W · 225 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x359e…9376backed Medvedev43c62.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked Medvedev38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.82240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cf9…1abfbacked Humbert58c58$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.361752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Humbert57c56.45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2725237.3%94 W · 158 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Medvedev34c52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.683562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Humbert64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.881,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39cb…09d6backed Medvedev44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207852.6%41 W · 37 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Humbert63c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9531339.9%125 W · 188 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd411…e342backed Humbert61c29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.311457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Humbert57c26.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.387,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x063c…d642backed Humbert61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.752263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07a4…be3abacked Humbert61c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.361258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b40…93f4backed Humbert62c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.741457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d4d…d33fbacked Humbert61c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.97862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x934a…9096backed Humbert61c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.191957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8204…61d9backed Humbert62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+25.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Humbert79c19.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.152037.7%196 W · 324 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x83d7…f2d1backed Humbert62c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.461266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e3…7b48backed Humbert64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5546…35b7backed Humbert69c14.39$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+98%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.