Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62d60405086d291b0aaeabec292da05f4473b036b45f0ebcbe848ea933f78bb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 44c | 774.77$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.39 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 58c | 428.34$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.97 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 44c | 280.48$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 275.84$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 47c | 228.43$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 167.13$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 138.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 137$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 8c | 136.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 130.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 127.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 116.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 54c | 111.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 50c | 109.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 106.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 102.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 98.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 37c | 95.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 52c | 90.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 89.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 88.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 77.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 17c | 73.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 63c | 72.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 69.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 44c | 63.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 62.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 60.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 58.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 31c | 55.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 55.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 55.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 55.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 38c | 53.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 51.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 48.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 46.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 28c | 43.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 42.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 41.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 45c | 39.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 37.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 35.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 49c | 33.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 33.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 52c | 28.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 27.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 25.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 25.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 23.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 60c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 18.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 62c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 67c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.