Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb261bdea54a7456c74a7dc9cb2d03f35eec0b8afdce56f4a6511876a1d5a7f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 50c | 624.85$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.71 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 50c | 510$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.3 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 16c | 487.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.35 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 6c | 416.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 410.75$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 49c | 404.82$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.57 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 321.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 20c | 299.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 24c | 263.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.53 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 232.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 27c | 214.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 212.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.26 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 15c | 206.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.04 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 17c | 137$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 131.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 127.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 47c | 112.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…c0fabacked Yes | 11c | 108$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +256.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 103.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb2…d8d4backed Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 65c | 100.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 98.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 21c | 91.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 52c | 77.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 76c | 76.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4d…3375backed Yes | 52c | 75.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 63c | 67.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 29c | 61.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 59.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 56.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 55.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 54.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 53.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 55c | 49.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 47.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 61c | 45.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 43.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 55c | 42.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 33c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 39.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 39.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 37.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 35.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 33.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 55c | 31.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 31.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 29.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 29.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 26.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 25.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 41c | 24.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 52c | 23.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 59c | 22.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 20.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 58c | 19.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 76c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 68c | 16.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.