Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62d9fbe7a73da81dadf269596540b8557eca156a0a4b2f8ed0b2e8a4a45340fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 4c | 558.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 489.84$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 75c | 484.53$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 10c | 324.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 299.55$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 78c | 284.55$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 39c | 269.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.87 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 9c | 240.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 197.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 32c | 180.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 180.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e07…13b0backed Yes | 50c | 158.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 150.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 146.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 38c | 136.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.31 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 116$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 20c | 92.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 61c | 90.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 66c | 90.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 36c | 80.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…4871backed Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 62.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 62.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 53.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 54c | 50.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dea…fad6backed Yes | 53c | 47.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 58c | 44.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 44.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…a1ebbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 41c | 42.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 38.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 37c | 37.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…c533backed Yes | 53c | 37.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 33c | 35.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 49c | 30.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 70c | 24.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 62c | 22.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…12c5backed Yes | 74c | 21.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 54c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.