Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6b401cc20945b7f5bd50b8c701437ab7a7e9a873bb0f40ebbe4dfbd89df39f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 4,149$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 13c | 876.13$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 78c | 655.9$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 18c | 375.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 241.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 222.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 73c | 203.09$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 40c | 199.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 28c | 176.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 73c | 157.44$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 8c | 152.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 70c | 146.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 127.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 24c | 119$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 117$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 79c | 111.27$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 109.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked Yes | 25c | 109.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 104.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e07…13b0backed Yes | 39c | 103.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 22c | 99.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 21c | 99.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 25c | 97.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 91.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed Yes | 31c | 91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 38c | 88.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 81.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 26c | 77.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 77.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1211…b173backed Yes | 31c | 76.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked Yes | 27c | 70.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 42c | 65.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 75c | 64.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…a1ebbacked Yes | 35c | 63.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 63.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 71c | 57.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 18c | 57.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 57.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 56.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…0b82backed Yes | 45c | 55.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 72c | 51.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 50.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…cac7backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 68c | 47.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 46.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 73c | 45.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 77c | 43.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 42.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 41.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 40.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 71c | 39.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 62c | 39.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 73c | 38.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 35.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 76c | 35.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 64c | 31.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 72c | 30.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 79c | 26.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…0ef4backed Yes | 39c | 26.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 78c | 24.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 23.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 71c | 21.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 80c | 21.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 70c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c5…8dddbacked No | 66c | 18.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 16.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 78c | 16.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 73c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 79c | 12.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.