MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62ed2757ae792f1721ac06e7af3de4bebf9685001772065d229ef12a2b3a07f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 2,920$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 1,622$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 1,478$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.64 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 1,332$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.49 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 679.86$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 606.63$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 527.03$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 480.8$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.71 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Miami Marlins | 9c | 477.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 304.66$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.54 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 189.14$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.52 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…e29dbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 186.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 152.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.17 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 141.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 128.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa604…1bf4backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 106.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 95.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 91.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 90.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 86.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 83.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 77.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 77.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 57.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 54.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 52.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 30.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 25.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 25.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 24.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.