MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x994b0fb8d496c5b14ee4d41cdb57ffd349ec0f4d2e5a1484ce83c96cd76b820c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 53c | 100,000$53,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,000 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861a…1f15backed Over | 47c | 96,819$45,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,314.09 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 54c | 13,660$7,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,317.16 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 6,000$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,240 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 47c | 4,115$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.87 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 47c | 4,043$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,142.93 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…15fbbacked Over | 47c | 2,459$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 47c | 2,135$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.28 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 47c | 1,755$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.84 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Over | 46c | 1,313$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.05 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 39c | 863.86$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.67 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 53c | 633.81$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.92 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 540.97$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 523.35$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…4088backed Under | 59c | 522.95$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 496.71$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.23 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 473.07$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 41c | 470.54$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 53c | 180.61$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 53c | 171.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 164.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Under | 52c | 164.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…942bbacked Under | 54c | 152.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 143$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 129.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 46c | 127.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…1a56backed Over | 48c | 103.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 49c | 100.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 53c | 77.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 52c | 72.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Under | 54c | 61.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 51c | 59.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 65c | 57.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 54.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 53c | 54.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 32c | 54.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb02…df7cbacked Under | 55c | 52.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Over | 50c | 51.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 56c | 50.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…2e1abacked Under | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 53c | 44.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Under | 53c | 43.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 47c | 38.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc3backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 47c | 33.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 64c | 30.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…21a5backed Over | 50c | 30.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…19dfbacked Over | 48c | 28.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Over | 61c | 27.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Under | 53c | 27.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 61c | 25.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 47c | 24.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…a264backed Over | 70c | 21.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami MarlinsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.