MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62f4a230fd57b45ab1d93948351a4d66d5da61132966ed9d85d2625b7afa5fca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Seattle Mariners | 69c | 2,900$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.94 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 1,868$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.07 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Texas Rangers | 32c | 373.95$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.74 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 311.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.06 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers | 32c | 303.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.39 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 68c | 238.17$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.96 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 68c | 216$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 194$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.74 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 161.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Texas Rangers | 31c | 105.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 101.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4404…cda8backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 73.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 71.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 70.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 65.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Seattle Mariners | 27c | 64.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 62.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Texas Rangers | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Texas Rangers | 31c | 56.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Texas Rangers | 32c | 51.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 49.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers | 30c | 49.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked Seattle Mariners | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 67c | 16.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-5.5)Texas Rangers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.