MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cc5aa6a6705f1cd70d1381d0293ca7f07ef0997cf3a361214fd01d81bbdcc5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 44c | 22,885$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,884.66 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 5,845$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,641.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 29c | 4,684$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,337.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 4,045$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 2,598$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 45c | 1,122$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 65c | 649.87$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.82 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 46c | 531$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.26 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f09…38c3backed Over | 10c | 488.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 332.04$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…235ebacked Over | 50c | 303.3$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.65 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 52c | 193.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 45c | 182.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 180.3$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 54c | 144.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 57c | 118.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 45c | 100.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 30c | 93.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 46c | 85.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 73c | 79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 58c | 72.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 61c | 68.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 39c | 52.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 25c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 61c | 47.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 67c | 39.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 35c | 33.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Over | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Under | 62c | 30.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 38c | 30.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc09f…8865backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-5.5)Texas Rangers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.