Movies · resolved market
Will “Nobody Wants This” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62f569e4f4f32b9876053c367a9b6eeac86e187c305ae8547c636f052d33b2ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed Yes | 17c | 17,242$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,360.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…ec13backed Yes | 16c | 8,038$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,738.11 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 55c | 1,527$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.07 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 16c | 1,463$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.29 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 20c | 1,399$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.47 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc795…6b62backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…07cfbacked Yes | 16c | 823.75$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.32per pick | 30cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 607.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.47 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…00adbacked Yes | 24c | 585.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +312.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 8c | 331.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…09ebbacked Yes | 15c | 298.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 222.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.19 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 198.67$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 184.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.37 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e8…0e6dbacked Yes | 76c | 177.88$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 6c | 177$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +287.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 10c | 167.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 164.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1db…f2e0backed No | 67c | 120$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…6950backed Yes | 14c | 116.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 24c | 116.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 24c | 108.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Yes | 11c | 102.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…f91bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…ac24backed Yes | 22c | 90.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…5861backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 76c | 52.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…e5e5backed No | 67c | 45.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed No | 68c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x226f…3c94backed No | 67c | 36.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3933…026bbacked Yes | 65c | 30.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…799cbacked Yes | 39c | 25.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will “Nobody Wants This” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025)this page
- Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.