NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x630141a78700fe5e5967d735e0d896f4a1c28062ec5a69d4f0bb793a1ef35080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Under | 50c | 8,744$4,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,379.44 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 7,344$3,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,683.47 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 1,707$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.61 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 50c | 1,468$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.02 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 800$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.44 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 53c | 451.79$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.57 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Under | 55c | 356.72$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.8 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 49c | 307.27$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…2d72backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Under | 51c | 262.32$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 49c | 240$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 217.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 42c | 208$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 198.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 51c | 198.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 192.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 47c | 187$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.11 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…cc45backed Over | 37c | 140.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 48c | 123.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…2f45backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 51c | 87.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed Under | 51c | 85.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 44c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 33c | 67.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…76b0backed Under | 51c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d15…2d65backed Under | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 56c | 53.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Over | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…8908backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 51c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 64c | 19.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Senators: O/U 5.5this page
- Devils vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Devils vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.