Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63017ea28d9470d83594fab60857bb781a605ebaf6690f791e76513703411b82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 27c | 511.12$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.85 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 336.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.46 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 320.68$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 76c | 218.35$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.98 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…ab16backed Yes | 37c | 209.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 179.88$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 74c | 168.03$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 71c | 148$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 134.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 11c | 123.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 109.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 100.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 40c | 82.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 30c | 71.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 67.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 72c | 55.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 55.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 50.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 46.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 38.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf47…9eb9backed Yes | 48c | 33.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…abc5backed Yes | 46c | 32.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 31.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 29.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 75c | 17.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 73c | 15.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.