Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x633ba860a366760f6664643a00427a39b9982113c2fcc6bdc4b72ba7083e17cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 9c | 1,991$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.16 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 1,006$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 536.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 7c | 459.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 416.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 7c | 371.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 19c | 364.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 11c | 342.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 316.34$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 315.21$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 76c | 312.35$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 272.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 267.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 244.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 26c | 234.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 229.64$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 45c | 211.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 17c | 210.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 27c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 179.96$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 20c | 167.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 163.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 142.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 125.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 122$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 12c | 120.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 117.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 115.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 109.74$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 107.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 10c | 103$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 99.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 89.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 16c | 85.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 84.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 74c | 81.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 27c | 81.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 64.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 23c | 59.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 77c | 55.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 24c | 50.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 69c | 49.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 22c | 47.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 33c | 45.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 27c | 40.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…a384backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 73c | 39.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 74c | 32.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 38c | 31.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 76c | 30.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 27.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…588cbacked No | 79c | 26.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 75c | 25.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 74c | 25.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 60c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 79c | 22.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 56c | 20.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 62c | 19.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…6eacbacked No | 78c | 18.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 73c | 18.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 74c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.