Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f969db49addbe674f5ee85dff5499f6eea22e9e5ef24b91d43393ee7f175535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 6c | 1,327$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,312$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.71 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…ec7bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,022$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 49c | 753.07$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.49 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 35c | 657.85$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.58 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 418.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 329.1$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.47 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 294.01$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 69c | 290.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.96 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 7c | 290$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 75c | 268.7$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.22 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 217.46$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 216.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 7c | 211.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 12c | 177.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 48c | 175.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 40c | 169.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 22c | 166.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 153.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 55c | 143.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 36c | 126.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 62c | 113.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 94.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 66c | 90.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 47c | 86.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 85.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 81.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…f7e9backed Yes | 33c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 46c | 76.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 58c | 76.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 40c | 74.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed No | 21c | 74.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 62c | 72.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 14c | 71.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…a384backed Yes | 69c | 58.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 36c | 58.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 59c | 57.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 52c | 57.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 43c | 53.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 50c | 51.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 50c | 51.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 53c | 49.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 78c | 45.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 59c | 45.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 62c | 45.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked No | 59c | 42.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 61c | 42.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 29c | 41.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 60c | 40.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 48c | 39.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 39.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 63c | 36.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Yes | 38c | 35.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 32.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 44c | 30.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…0348backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 36c | 29.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 52c | 26.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 62c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 71c | 24.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 23.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 70c | 22.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 62c | 18.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 77c | 16.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.