Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf4ca983d1bffce396cf78f1dc6abc2a8126894c9aed21006e382a37f107e1f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 33c | 771.66$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.17 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 23c | 526.57$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.54 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 47c | 510.45$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.54 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 445.95$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 402.33$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 400.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 52c | 341.83$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.01 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 9c | 331.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.77 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 315.52$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 302.92$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 13c | 299.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 293.75$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 55c | 274.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 244.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 79c | 240.84$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 17c | 233.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c2…4261backed Yes | 13c | 208$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.66 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 205$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 203.19$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 198.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 62c | 183.83$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 29c | 180$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.71 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 54c | 155.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 152.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 68c | 134.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 128.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 56c | 124.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 119.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 119.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 105.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 99.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 99.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 50c | 93.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 87.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 22c | 86.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 22c | 81.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 18c | 77.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 74c | 76.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 67c | 74.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed No | 67c | 74.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 53c | 71.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…f7e9backed Yes | 57c | 70.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 50c | 70.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 62c | 66.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 15c | 66.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 39c | 63.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 37c | 62.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 39c | 60.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 59c | 53.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 38c | 52.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf127…da86backed Yes | 28c | 52.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 31c | 50.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…4f96backed Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 38c | 48.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 44c | 46.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 63c | 43.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 59c | 41.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 57c | 40.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…da38backed Yes | 53c | 39.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 38.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 79c | 37.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 50c | 36.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 33c | 36.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 69c | 33.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 60c | 32.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 54c | 30.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 72c | 30.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 43c | 29.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 28.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 74c | 27.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 51c | 25.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 48c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…0bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 23.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 48c | 22.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 47c | 21.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 57c | 20.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…90edbacked Yes | 55c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 58c | 20.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…d3aabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.