MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63537cc4ff3676a129d22229d19db8cf07dc9acf35de0d88343fe726ef415682
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Chicago Cubs, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 1,496$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Mets | 67c | 1,491$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.35 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed New York Mets | 68c | 1,146$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.77 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…93afbacked Chicago Cubs | 1c | 1,040$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 420 | 41.9%176 W · 244 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 871.73$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 821.05$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 61c | 741$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.99 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 61c | 619.18$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 29c | 572.31$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 24c | 510$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets | 61c | 356.56$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.06 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 50c | 295.19$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 243.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 185.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 134.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 131.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked New York Mets | 55c | 125.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed New York Mets | 80c | 123.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf3…4807backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed New York Mets | 63c | 84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Mets | 63c | 45.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 44.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed New York Mets | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked New York Mets | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed New York Mets | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed New York Mets | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked New York Mets | 71c | 29.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed New York Mets | 80c | 25.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 24.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed New York Mets | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked New York Mets | 80c | 22.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Mets | 79c | 18.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Mets | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.