Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6369298af77fdfaf7a9038b1123785df41eeb8aa6508d3eb7d06cdbdaec144d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 8,031$3,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,487.22 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 78c | 2,321$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.62 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 50c | 1,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.5 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 25c | 1,759$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.92 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.72 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 1,276$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.47 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 21c | 1,249$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.29 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,007$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.45 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Over | 46c | 1,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 568.29$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.27 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 80c | 550$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…9127backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 67c | 167.31$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 71c | 140.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 56c | 124.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 22c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Over | 61c | 82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 63.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Over | 79c | 59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…80cbbacked Over | 50c | 50.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f43…843abacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 78c | 40.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceaf…a10abacked Over | 67c | 40.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 52c | 31.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 53c | 28.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 44c | 28.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…fb48backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 71c | 23.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Over | 63c | 22.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Over | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.