Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d65a2e3247c9861df539cb41b219c38eade8f065458e44324a94ad0c8c6a7bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 75c | 7,484$5,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.95 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 6,032$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.82 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 77c | 2,166$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.18 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 1,074$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.63 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 30c | 817$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.1 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 33c | 750$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 68c | 443.98$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.07 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 32c | 393.73$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.7 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 68c | 274.26$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 68c | 201.4$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 154.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…6a80backed Under | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 31c | 140.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 32c | 125.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 70c | 42.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 68c | 34.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…4216backed Over | 33c | 31.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…c864backed Under | 74c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.