MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x636a46fdd7683140cd64d2a2dc09662de7ae0546b15f43b340083a29fb2794fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed No | 48c | 720.71$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.98 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 49c | 542.54$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 51c | 262.23$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.74 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 48c | 225.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed No | 50c | 200.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked No | 48c | 181.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 52c | 131.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Yes | 56c | 107.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 45c | 89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 44c | 77.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 51c | 61.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 49c | 60.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 52c | 28.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Redsthis page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.