MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e13cc6e4e6ece71d403868a7264d1bc57d538bf2cd1d394b5ca7defda9e5720
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 53c | 66,666$35,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,332.98 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 47c | 66,573$31,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,283.61 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 48c | 4,820$2,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,506.23 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 4,384$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.45 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…7dd1backed Over | 53c | 3,866$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048.27 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 3,462$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 3,260$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.16 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 3,229$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 52c | 2,410$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.02 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 1,961$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…13aebacked Over | 52c | 1,905$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -45%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 51c | 1,800$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.99 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 49c | 1,595$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.39 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 44c | 1,500$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 860.05$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.09 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 51c | 676.47$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 660.33$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.57 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 51c | 576.34$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 547.16$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 450$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 47c | 403.78$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.07 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 221$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 204.15$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 62c | 182.06$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 48c | 158.93$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 54c | 133.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 132.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 55c | 119.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 53c | 113.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 54c | 103.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…7320backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 49c | 101.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…07a6backed Over | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…3691backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 91.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 60c | 85.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 68.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 29c | 56.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 54.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…a991backed Under | 43c | 54.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 51.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 72c | 49.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…aa48backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 48c | 46.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 29.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 41c | 29.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…7c30backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 55c | 24.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…97c4backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…dfa6backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.