Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x637895679e565242cdd3bdce2a790ae4bc87a61b1ae5a6d3dac155acefb4820d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 994.76$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 80c | 468.65$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.47 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 303.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 4c | 288$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 184.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 78c | 179.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 15c | 171.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.16 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 19c | 150.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 78c | 126$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 124.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 109.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 75c | 95.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 24c | 95.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 93.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 92.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 37c | 87.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 74c | 83.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 83.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 74.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 23c | 70.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 74c | 67.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 74c | 67.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 74c | 67.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 61.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 21c | 55.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 76c | 52.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 76c | 52.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 47.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed Yes | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 43.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 40.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…ab15backed Yes | 28c | 36.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e10…d25bbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 32.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 39c | 27.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 23.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 71c | 19.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…e113backed Yes | 67c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.