Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb021810ad455c7d4f4b6dc9a9b5dd9c3c5025df15088aa10b083671283c6a2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 848.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 4c | 544.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 412.05$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 25c | 361.04$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.51 | 40 | 97.5%39 W · 1 L | +16.9wins | +0.42per pick | 55cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 41c | 280.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 15c | 251.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 70c | 188$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.93 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 30c | 184.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 180.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 177.2$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 164.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 150.16$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 149.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 26c | 133.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 126.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 38c | 112.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 105.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 73c | 104.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 73c | 98.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 97.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 71c | 84.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 19c | 83.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 74c | 80.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 42c | 77.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 74.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 66c | 73.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 29c | 68.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 26c | 66.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 31c | 63.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c0…1191backed Yes | 68c | 58.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 51.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 51.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 47.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 47.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 43c | 39.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 40c | 37.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 37.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e10…d25bbacked Yes | 34c | 35.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 34.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 68c | 32.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 31.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 29.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 23.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 71c | 22.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 68c | 21.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 16.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 74c | 13.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.