Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb641c1e4bff940864e31ae866bf6b683deab7fad06b0e6ae14db0aa5ec5b7482
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 20c | 1,503$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.25 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 759.33$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 498.11$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 432.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 57c | 400.97$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.2 | 40 | 97.5%39 W · 1 L | +16.9wins | +0.42per pick | 55cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 23c | 380$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 343.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 303.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 14c | 299$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 246$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 236.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 29c | 215.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 201.72$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 199.98$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 198.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 177.2$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 66c | 164.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 164.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 41c | 157.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 17c | 156.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 152.66$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 8c | 132.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 63c | 105.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 22c | 104.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 101.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 74.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 46.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 44c | 45.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 51c | 36.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 33.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 74c | 27.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…ebe0backed Yes | 76c | 26.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 50c | 24.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…d999backed Yes | 59c | 20.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.