Tweets · resolved market
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6382405894a5cedc58f3f87880f6a10a96a1c78c988482053b7e745dffd43e80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 38c | 633.93$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.08 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 41c | 248.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.7 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 72c | 203.72$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 117.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 59c | 81.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 54c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 34c | 64.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked No | 62c | 48.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 69c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…2c25backed No | 63c | 36.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked Yes | 37c | 34.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 75c | 24.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…2444backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…3e2bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dae…0590backed Yes | 75c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?this page
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.