Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63876710903404ae101bdcf441625ea34fc99c943a89cbf60721a9815cef2ab5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7620…d9f0backed Over | 45c | 2,268$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 70c | 1,181$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.66 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 56c | 1,036$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.62 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 38c | 960.54$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 942$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.36 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 846.31$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.87 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 42c | 708.43$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.54 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 41c | 386.36$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Under | 75c | 260$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…d81fbacked Over | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 40c | 148.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 44c | 136.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e11…b5a8backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…a73abacked Over | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…a38abacked Under | 79c | 72.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 56c | 70.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 59c | 51.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 177 | 56.5%100 W · 77 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 41c | 26.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee74…3bcebacked Under | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Le Havre AC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.