NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x638f8aed0408872de787a6a43ceba228077f0f7e30293e851698f7c41513799c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Broncos, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe795…bffdbacked Broncos | 67c | 2,979$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Cardinals | 5c | 2,875$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Cardinals | 7c | 2,704$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.56 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Cardinals | 42c | 2,163$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.36 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Broncos | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Cardinals | 7c | 1,350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Cardinals | 30c | 1,331$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.51 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Cardinals | 10c | 1,202$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…0819backed Cardinals | 10c | 1,037$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Broncos | 59c | 811.31$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.64 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Cardinals | 20c | 691.63$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Broncos | 61c | 594.05$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.68 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Cardinals | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Cardinals | 39c | 449.73$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…0dfabacked Cardinals | 41c | 448.78$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Broncos | 69c | 372.85$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Cardinals | 28c | 367.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…b5c6backed Cardinals | 41c | 356.51$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Cardinals | 7c | 356.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…6153backed Broncos | 60c | 350$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb016…99eabacked Cardinals | 41c | 348.39$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed Broncos | 60c | 310.19$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a2…aa96backed Cardinals | 41c | 303.26$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…c744backed Cardinals | 41c | 284.34$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed Cardinals | 11c | 280$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…0c52backed Broncos | 62c | 263.79$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…da6cbacked Broncos | 62c | 261.84$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0847…7e16backed Broncos | 62c | 260.69$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Cardinals | 42c | 259.36$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Cardinals | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Broncos | 58c | 244.57$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed Cardinals | 9c | 242.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Cardinals | 38c | 229.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Cardinals | 41c | 222.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d6b3backed Broncos | 76c | 200.53$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Cardinals | 18c | 199.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaead…f797backed Broncos | 61c | 186.15$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…c772backed Cardinals | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Cardinals | 16c | 141.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Cardinals | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 114 | 7.9%9 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Broncos | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Broncos | 58c | 80.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…524bbacked Broncos | 61c | 65.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Broncos | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Cardinals | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Cardinals | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Broncos | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Cardinals | 39c | 40.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…c676backed Broncos | 64c | 37.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Broncos | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…f77ebacked Broncos | 79c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Broncos | 59c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.