MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63957492e8831c8326024bf17f8927dbcfc73786e388ba0825439ed212a4a8d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $328,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $361,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 56c | 159,227$88,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88,576.67 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 66,546$29,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,799.26 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 56c | 62,771$35,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,151.79 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Over | 44c | 9,562$4,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,354.98 | 150 | 44%66 W · 84 L | -16.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 78c | 6,132$4,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.03 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 43c | 1,946$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.11 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 728.71$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.94 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 43c | 636$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.52 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 53c | 340.88$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.55 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 43c | 318$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.46 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 50c | 250.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 43c | 194$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 52c | 134.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…53babacked Under | 56c | 114.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 46c | 105$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 46c | 94.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 45c | 85.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 49c | 84.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed Over | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 60c | 70.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 43c | 61.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Over | 73c | 37.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Under | 52c | 36.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 43c | 28.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…6872backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 53c | 22.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…43ffbacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.