MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95754a98392d5bad9c31823719313ca5a4c77c851df22492f6ba2b330070f434
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 52c | 49,618$25,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,774.79 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 17,214$8,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,951.28 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 52c | 12,000$6,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,240 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4782…8a75backed Over | 48c | 10,704$5,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,566.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 48c | 9,038$4,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.6 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 7,699$3,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,001.4 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.99 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 4,004$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.19 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 48c | 3,432$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.42 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 51c | 3,172$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.86 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 3,155$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.42 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 3,072$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.96 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d0…f7ebbacked Over | 48c | 3,055$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 2,037$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.37 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.96 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 45c | 1,869$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.57 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.84 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Under | 54c | 1,626$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 48c | 1,453$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.56 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,124$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.04 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 48c | 1,107$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.4 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 53c | 1,088$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.64 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 680.99$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.92 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 48c | 625.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.01 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 48c | 613$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.76 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 583$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.16 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 569.97$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.35 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 509.99$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.6 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 466.2$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.42 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 53c | 428.3$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…e0e7backed Over | 48c | 335$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 45c | 322.91$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 816 | 57.1%466 W · 350 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 48c | 181.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Under | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 13c | 153.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 52c | 142.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 53c | 138.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 48c | 117.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 114.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 53c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 53c | 82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 68.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 52c | 65.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 48c | 57.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…806fbacked Over | 48c | 52.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7c…a9b9backed Over | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Under | 26c | 44.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 49c | 42.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 48c | 38.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…380bbacked Over | 48c | 38.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 50c | 37.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 48c | 35.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 71c | 32.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 60c | 31.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 49c | 25.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.