South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Independiente win on 2025-10-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63959ed1363cb2394dbe2758e4f1c4d3bb99444647c3477bc257e3b8ac08eed8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800 | 322 | 42.5%137 W · 185 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 49c | 19,994$9,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,797.06 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 50c | 12,846$6,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,452.83 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 50c | 9,785$4,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,892.51 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 50c | 2,641$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.54 | 5,821 | 45.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L | +97.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 49c | 2,568$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.72 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 51c | 2,117$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.61 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 45c | 2,000$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 56c | 1,148$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.93 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 50c | 942.57$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.31 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…a94fbacked Yes | 50c | 600$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 33c | 549.88$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.37 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x188d…d55fbacked Yes | 78c | 380$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 49c | 228$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Yes | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 50c | 199.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a8…c43bbacked No | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Yes | 76c | 145$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 50c | 94.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 49c | 82.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 49c | 51.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes | 49c | 48.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…1d4abacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…011cbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…1f6bbacked Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…b4b8backed Yes | 75c | 22.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Independiente win on 2025-10-24?this page
- Will CA Independiente vs. CA Platense end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Platense win on 2025-10-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.