NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63bad32667b50810ba22dcd49468d39689f0d5ea1a9981873c639868356c0cf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 49c | 13,387$6,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,521.73 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 12,909$6,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,579.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 50c | 11,406$5,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,759.72 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 47c | 8,827$4,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,644.02 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 51c | 6,508$3,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,315.62 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 50c | 5,486$2,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,745 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe971…350cbacked Over | 45c | 3,800$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4db…309dbacked Under | 55c | 3,800$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…da08backed Under | 56c | 3,600$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…db7dbacked Over | 44c | 3,600$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Over | 54c | 1,981$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.81 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 46c | 1,899$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.68 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 1,400$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 1,134$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 1,067$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.59 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…afd1backed Under | 51c | 978.27$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 556$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.44 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Under | 48c | 364.58$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.58 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Under | 50c | 316$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…50f1backed Under | 50c | 174$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 112.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…e729backed Under | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…813dbacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb725…002cbacked Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Over | 54c | 39.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…da96backed Over | 53c | 27.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae66backed Over | 55c | 24.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. CavaliersCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.