NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2cc09ee1c252288907cdef6b2a556c64aadfc9b71f679fc2940a0566a8a7838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Cavaliers, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Celtics | 56c | 28,473$16,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,428.09 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Cavaliers | 45c | 18,000$8,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,068.49 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Celtics | 54c | 15,000$8,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,935.23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 11,110$5,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,011.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Celtics | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Cavaliers | 44c | 8,016$3,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,528.88 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 4,815$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.4 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Celtics | 53c | 3,504$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers | 44c | 2,686$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.84 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 46c | 2,136$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Cavaliers | 44c | 1,680$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.11 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c3…955abacked Cavaliers | 44c | 1,667$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Cavaliers | 44c | 1,665$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.6 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Cavaliers | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Cavaliers | 44c | 1,414$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.2 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 1,265$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.96 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cavaliers | 46c | 1,011$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.06 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Celtics | 57c | 863.16$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.16 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Celtics | 55c | 764$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.8 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Cavaliers | 44c | 688$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.72 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Celtics | 53c | 653.03$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.8 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Celtics | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 440$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.8 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Cavaliers | 44c | 438.64$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Celtics | 56c | 400$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Celtics | 53c | 305$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Cavaliers | 46c | 273.91$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Celtics | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 45c | 244.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 46c | 227$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 46c | 195.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Celtics | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Celtics | 56c | 182.14$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 463 | 48.4%224 W · 239 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Celtics | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Celtics | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Celtics | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Cavaliers | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 44c | 156$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Celtics | 52c | 128.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Cavaliers | 44c | 115.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Cavaliers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5009backed Celtics | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Celtics | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Celtics | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc67…74e3backed Cavaliers | 44c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Celtics | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Celtics | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Celtics | 57c | 55.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Celtics | 57c | 52.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Cavaliers | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…88acbacked Celtics | 57c | 45.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Celtics | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Celtics | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Celtics | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Celtics | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. CavaliersCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.