NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63c42598b4ca780efd394d112234ce2a02ee34a62d4b85798d78bce89bd4f248
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 51c | 21,717$11,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,650.1 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 51c | 21,617$10,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,917 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Over | 50c | 7,943$3,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,971.32 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 7,416$3,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,725.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…e3dabacked Under | 51c | 4,200$2,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb340…58c9backed Over | 49c | 4,200$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…8e43backed Under | 52c | 3,800$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…74c2backed Over | 48c | 3,800$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…0e4abacked Under | 45c | 3,556$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.56 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 54c | 2,510$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.4 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 52c | 1,315$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.59 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 51c | 949.02$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Under | 44c | 792.86$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…ad20backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…ed6cbacked Under | 53c | 490$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…ff56backed Over | 47c | 490$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 469$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.19 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 385.22$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.18 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 50c | 196.14$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 196$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 191.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Over | 53c | 188.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Under | 45c | 181$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Under | 55c | 170.89$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Under | 52c | 126.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…9ad0backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…089fbacked Under | 50c | 57.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…6af4backed Under | 49c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 49c | 24.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. CavaliersCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.