NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa140f5007ef94a0b2bcef085cbc56191c3e67f0d36e0f19187652cd4bc88db7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Cavaliers, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060e…2384backed Celtics | 51c | 59,971$30,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,385.72 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cavaliers | 49c | 36,046$17,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,667.07 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 23,335$11,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,434.15 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 5,408$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,698.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Celtics | 52c | 2,870$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.47 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers | 48c | 2,666$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.81 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Celtics | 47c | 1,470$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.15 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Celtics | 48c | 1,229$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 14c | 1,196$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Celtics | 54c | 1,087$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.04 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 48c | 984$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.83 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Celtics | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Cavaliers | 17c | 725$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…caa9backed Cavaliers | 49c | 632.65$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers | 52c | 580$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e2…9b0cbacked Celtics | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Celtics | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Celtics | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cavaliers | 47c | 282.47$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.17 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Cavaliers | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics | 48c | 219$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Cavaliers | 49c | 204.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Cavaliers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…0a1ebacked Cavaliers | 49c | 113$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Cavaliers | 49c | 112.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 110.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Cavaliers | 47c | 109.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Celtics | 50c | 103.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…3017backed Celtics | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Celtics | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Celtics | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Cavaliers | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Cavaliers | 48c | 64.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Celtics | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Cavaliers | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Celtics | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Celtics | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Celtics | 53c | 30.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 21.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. CavaliersCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.