MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63e33bf607cab8aa051c1f4d1f1d5f762219e0d8c673abc1b3c6644814635363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 17c | 2,243$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 78c | 1,803$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 15c | 684.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 15c | 555.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 30c | 521.05$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 79c | 469.14$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 362$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 207$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 112$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 22c | 104.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 79.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 17c | 77.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f6…7ce9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…16b9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 48.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd301…f176backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 26.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.