MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e0ad3d6a3df6681af04878b44354bf7eb7c87e2d9d57bf6a9319c1ba6f4de37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 44c | 24,000$10,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,439.97 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 10,282$5,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,593.59 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 56c | 9,166$5,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,133.03 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 46c | 9,000$4,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,890 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 56c | 6,250$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Under | 66c | 5,661$3,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.94 | 981 | 49.9%490 W · 491 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 4,083$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 3,822$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 54c | 3,116$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.82 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 2,763$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.61 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…8f07backed Over | 56c | 1,767$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.63 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 1,535$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.43 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 1,024$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.44 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 978.47$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 25c | 963.53$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 40c | 903.9$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.86 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 60c | 797.99$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.19 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 44c | 780$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 45c | 763.69$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.03 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 48c | 667.44$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.07 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked Over | 22c | 650$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.65 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 34c | 588.49$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.28 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 509$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.79 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 454.36$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 426.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 425$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 57c | 339$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.23 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 35c | 214$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…9a1bbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 57.7%75 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 56c | 175.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Under | 61c | 152.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 69c | 151.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 28c | 150.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…e128backed Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 379 | 41.2%156 W · 223 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 55c | 122.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under | 45c | 117.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 46c | 97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Under | 65c | 95.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 78c | 64.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 35c | 64.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over | 56c | 58.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 56c | 54.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 52.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 69c | 50.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 26c | 44.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Over | 31c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 65c | 40.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Over | 28c | 37.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 56c | 35.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 56c | 33.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 69c | 25.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 69c | 25.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 79c | 20.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 71c | 20.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.