CS2 · resolved market
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x641ce870fb24fe63d63003357c3c773b8983c9f34dac1d240ce9ab49d20b9272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6aa…4e0ebacked Over | 44c | 1,319$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Under | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed Over | 49c | 655.19$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.04 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked Under | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Over | 44c | 358.47$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…d35dbacked Under | 55c | 314.18$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 303.81$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked Under | 58c | 239.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 419 | 50.1%210 W · 209 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 53c | 184.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 338 | 44.4%150 W · 188 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Under | 54c | 168.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 443 | 44%195 W · 248 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Over | 43c | 36.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Under | 57c | 31.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1,523 | 51.5%785 W · 738 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierG2 won
- Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs G2 - Map 1 WinnerNemiga won
- Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs G2 - Map 2 WinnerG2 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5)Nemiga won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5)G2 won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Nemiga (+3.5)G2 won
- Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5)Nemiga won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.