TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Hive vs Team Syntax - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hiveof Hive, Team Syntax
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,751 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Syntax65c10,908$7,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,090.771,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Hive36c3,793$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.0971143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Hive36c2,872$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.2595342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Hive30c1,178$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.4389938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Syntax40c1,056$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.442,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Hive34c1,037$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.469132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Hive41c610.42$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.21,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Hive35c516.04$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.9826147.9%125 W · 136 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed Hive61c476.99$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.838250%41 W · 41 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Syntax31c441.17$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Hive46c355.15$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.950353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba46…6ac5backed Team Syntax66c303.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005275%39 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Hive43c240.5$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7477256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Hive50c226.8$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.711,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Hive56c206.8$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1621769.1%150 W · 67 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Hive36c176.92$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.2314856.8%84 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa5…4859backed Hive36c148.66$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.142347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Syntax57c135.2$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.51,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Syntax40c121.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.821,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed Team Syntax51c120$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9542053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Hive36c118.27$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9989238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Team Syntax66c116.84$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5727459.5%163 W · 111 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Hive32c116.28$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7312432.3%40 W · 84 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc02b…80f3backed Hive50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Team Syntax64c92.19$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2447358.6%277 W · 196 L+25.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37a8…8b4dbacked Hive55c73.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2515957.9%92 W · 67 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Hive36c69.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.444845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid+0.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e5f…6ee5backed Hive36c65.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.944944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe559…b262backed Hive36c61.11$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.117635.5%27 W · 49 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Hive32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6653538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Syntax21c56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.811,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe07b…b7c9backed Team Syntax45c53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.854037.5%15 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f7…aebbbacked Team Syntax38c52.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203554.3%19 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Team Syntax60c45.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.238759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Hive36c43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5243049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf461…9ef2backed Hive48c40.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.888164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Hive42c38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.212441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked Hive58c36.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.678961.8%55 W · 34 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Team Syntax39c36.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4742639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Syntax37c35.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.481345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Hive31c34.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3718652.2%97 W · 89 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67f6…1651backed Hive32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.257742.9%33 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Team Syntax50c21.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Hive63c20.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.426149.2%30 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Hive77c16.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.829658.3%56 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.