Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64370ef93cb5906bfb122c6ad5593a52a734f2b4bfb66b10da2c23922e478e6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 0c | 6,709$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 1,581$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,384$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 4c | 1,215$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 8c | 737.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed Yes | 9c | 693.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 17c | 526.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 10c | 455$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 6c | 354.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 6c | 337.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 9c | 260.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 8c | 241.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 52c | 240.39$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 230.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 5c | 229.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 9c | 223$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 5c | 207.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 187.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 7c | 184.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 143.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 26c | 141.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 7c | 141.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 17c | 120.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 13c | 97.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 74.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 64.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 60.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 37c | 60.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 35c | 57.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 25c | 55.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 53.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed No | 60c | 52.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf07c…6deabacked No | 66c | 49.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 39.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 70c | 35.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…67bbbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 59c | 30.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 53c | 27.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 74c | 25.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 51c | 23.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 67c | 23.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 73c | 23.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 48c | 22.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…cb33backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes | 68c | 18.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.