Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cce4fac8f603ccdb730b31b631ff98c2ba0ee376303f857ebee39aad88a04c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 646.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 9c | 609.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed Yes | 19c | 517.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 354.16$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 18c | 310.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed Yes | 10c | 237.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 16c | 232.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 219.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 23c | 208.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 155.17$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 25c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 138.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 135.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…66b0backed Yes | 24c | 123.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 103.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 17c | 100.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 98.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 12c | 95.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 20c | 85.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 84.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 16c | 82.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2b…659bbacked Yes | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed No | 76c | 69.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 19c | 65.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 62.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 60.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 56.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 26c | 54.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 28c | 54.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 22c | 50.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 74c | 45.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…6b2abacked Yes | 28c | 44.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 78c | 38.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 80c | 36.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 35.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 34.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 79c | 31.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 27.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 75c | 24.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 75c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 17.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.