Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8bf5d9bb0f23fe09c361766082d1a7b90e589a0d11b1986854c20f23a736a46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 46c | 995.03$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.64 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 689.42$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 79c | 643.49$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.23 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 606.78$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 580.43$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 579.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 578.69$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 30c | 533.82$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.04 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 6c | 493.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.97 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 4c | 395.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.16 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 375.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 330.19$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 307.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 277.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.5 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 251.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 33c | 236.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 80c | 217.62$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 54c | 211.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 197.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 195.57$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 175.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 14c | 149.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.35 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 79c | 148.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 138.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 14c | 134.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 15c | 126.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 125.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 79c | 122.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 43c | 117.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 22c | 115.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.18 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 115.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 68c | 114.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 26c | 113.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 101.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 14c | 100.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 98.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 94.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 93.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 29c | 91.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 87.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 69c | 85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 78.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 48c | 75.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 25c | 74.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 74.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 70.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 66.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 65.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 75c | 64.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 80c | 63.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 62.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 75c | 56.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 39c | 56.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 53.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 31c | 52.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7862…bdfcbacked No | 56c | 50.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 36c | 46.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 77c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 50c | 45.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 51c | 45.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 67c | 45.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 43.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 42.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 40.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…3e7abacked Yes | 26c | 39.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 35.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 35.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 34.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 33.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 32.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 70c | 31.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 70c | 31.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 45c | 30.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 30.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 29.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 28.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 56c | 27.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 77c | 27.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 27.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 26.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 23.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.