TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,194
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,538

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,194 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes46c995.03$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.641,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c689.42$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.6412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes79c643.49$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2336930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No55c606.78$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.712,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c580.43$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.274,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes13c579.62$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.778,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c578.69$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.8210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes30c533.82$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.0421236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes6c493.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.9715334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes4c395.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.1615027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes5c375.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.152,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No48c330.19$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.751,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes19c307.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.313,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes6c277.28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.534918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No6c251.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No33c236.81$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3571823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes80c217.62$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9640265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes54c211.48$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9912853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No50c197.38$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.923,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c195.57$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.142,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No39c175.6$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.384,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes14c149.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3513430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes79c148.78$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8112941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes24c138.52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.624,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes14c134.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3728742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No26c130$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.615,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9008…09f0backed Yes15c126.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6511939.5%47 W · 72 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No31c125.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.692,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0751…073abacked Yes79c122.36$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5819255.2%106 W · 86 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes43c117.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2720327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes22c115.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No69c115.25$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.122,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes68c114.57$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.892,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes26c113.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5925536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes22c101.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes14c100.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9188…e046backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8256921.8%124 W · 445 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No67c98.33$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.881,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c96$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes74c94.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.833,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No71c93.57$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.474,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf742…400ebacked Yes29c91.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.211614.7%17 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No67c87.59$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.851,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No69c85$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6563143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No60c78.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.642,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No48c75.01$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8771057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No25c74.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5777151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No43c74.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.232,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c70.45$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.55,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed Yes24c70$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.548261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes24c66.88$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.785,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c65.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.454,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes75c64.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes80c63.65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9322849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c62.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No75c56.61$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2839956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes39c56.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2410463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes31c53.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.723,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No31c52.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.392,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7862…bdfcbacked No56c50.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.440%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.515345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.044,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No36c46.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.892,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e40…2e56backed No77c46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.426660.6%40 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No50c45.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2324164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No51c45.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2537465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes67c45.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.076,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes24c43.39$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.182,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd489…7f08backed No80c42.91$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.339566.3%63 W · 32 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No38c40.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.082,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes27c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.25829.3%17 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No36c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.392,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6283…3e7abacked Yes26c39.28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.032231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No53c37.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0599962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No30c35.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c35.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.523,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No71c34.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.423,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c33.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.212,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c32.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.234,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed No70c31.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9720250.5%102 W · 100 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes70c31.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2934922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No45c30.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8428035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes35c30.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.793,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9444553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No74c29.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7342160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c28.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.69,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe010…5147backed No56c27.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55930.5%18 W · 41 L-17.1wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-53.6%equal weight27-0.20 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf69…6f13backed Yes77c27.19$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.259546.3%44 W · 51 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No75c27.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3598565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No78c26.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes78c25.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6710434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x018e…c536backed No74c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51668.8%11 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No43c23.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.072,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed No74c21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.543959%23 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No74c20.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.420546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.