Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4109d70a09a90224476242608258455dc5e151c9efca33ce19fb42c97be5871f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,776$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.54 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 599.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 492.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 12c | 390.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 7c | 354.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 5c | 336.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 4c | 325.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 17c | 318$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 12c | 313.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 28c | 296.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 296.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 257.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4226…18fcbacked Yes | 6c | 248.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 13c | 236$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 12c | 223$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 222.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 8c | 212$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 193.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 8c | 183.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 162$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 10c | 155.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 20c | 152.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 142.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 126.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 19c | 121.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 14c | 121.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 114.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 20c | 105.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 14c | 105.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 103.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…95b2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2b87backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 15c | 78.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 76.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 20c | 74.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 69.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 67.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 52.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 39.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 79c | 38.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 36.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 80c | 35.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 79c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfd…aacbbacked No | 79c | 17.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…9bcfbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 74cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.